Historical and future trends in emergency pituitary referrals: a machine learning analysis.

PURPOSE: Acute pituitary referrals to neurosurgical services frequently necessitate emergency care. Yet, a detailed characterisation of pituitary emergency referral patterns, including how they may change prospectively is lacking. This study aims to evaluate historical and current pituitary referral patterns and utilise state-of-the-art machine learning tools to predict future service use. METHODS: A data-driven analysis was performed using all available electronic neurosurgical referrals (2014-2021) to the busiest U.K. pituitary centre. Pituitary referrals were characterised and volumes were predicted using an auto-regressive moving average model with a preceding seasonal and trend decomposition using Loess step (STL-ARIMA), compared against a Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) algorithm, Prophet and two standard baseline forecasting models. Median absolute, and median percentage error scoring metrics with cross-validation were employed to evaluate algorithm performance. RESULTS: 462 of 36,224 emergency referrals were included (referring centres = 48; mean patient age = 56.7 years, female:male = 0.49:0.51). Emergency medicine and endocrinology accounted for the majority of referrals (67%). The most common presentations were headache (47%) and visual field deficits (32%). Lesions mainly comprised tumours or haemorrhage (85%) and involved the pituitary gland or fossa (70%). The STL-ARIMA pipeline outperformed CNN-LSTM, Prophet and baseline algorithms across scoring metrics, with standard accuracy being achieved for yearly predictions. Referral volumes significantly increased from the start of data collection with future projected increases (p < 0.001) and did not significantly reduce during the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: This work is the first to employ large-scale data and machine learning to describe and predict acute pituitary referral volumes, estimate future service demands, explore the impact of system stressors (e.g. COVID pandemic), and highlight areas for service improvement.

COVID-19 and the pituitary.

BACKGROUND: Despite COVID-19 being identified as severe respiratory viral infection, progressively many relevant endocrine manifestations have been reported greatly contributing to the severity of the clinical presentation. Systemic involvement in COVID-19 is due to the ubiquitous expression of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor, responsible for the entry in the cells of SARS-CoV-2, Several reports in humans and animal models showed a significant ACE2 mRNA expression in hypothalamus and pituitary cells. Moreover, higher mortality and poorer outcomes have been widely described in COVID-19 patients with obesity, diabetes and vertebral fractures, which are all highly prevalent in subjects with pituitary dysfunctions. AIM: To review the main endocrine manifestations of COVID-19 with their possible implications for pituitary diseases, the possible direct and indirect involvement of the pituitary gland in COVID-19, the impact of COVID-19 on the management of established pituitary diseases which can be already at increased risk for worse outcomes and on neurosurgical activities as well as vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Our review underlines that there could be a specific involvement of the pituitary gland which fits into a progressively shaping endocrine phenotype of COVID-19. Moreover, the care for pituitary diseases need to continue despite the restrictions due to the emergency. Several pituitary diseases, such as hypopituitarism and Cushing disease, or due to frequent comorbidities such as diabetes may be a risk factor for severe COVID-19 in affected patients. There is the urgent need to collect in international multicentric efforts data on all these aspects of the pituitary involvement in the pandemic in order to issue evidence driven recommendations for the management of pituitary patients in the persistent COVID-19 emergency.

Important Management Considerations In Patients With Pituitary Disorders During The Time Of The Covid-19 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: In December 2019, a novel coronavirus called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that resulted in a global pandemic with substantial morbidity and mortality. Currently, there is no specific treatment or approved vaccine against COVID-19. The underlying associated comorbidity and diminished immune function of some pituitary patients (whether caused by the disease and its sequelae or treatment with excess glucocorticoids) increases their risk of contracting and developing complications from COVID-19 infection. METHODS: A review of studies in PubMed and Google Scholar published between January 2020 to the time of writing (May 1, 2020) was conducted using the search terms 'pituitary,' 'coronavirus,' 'COVID-19', '2019-nCoV', 'diabetes mellitus', 'obesity', 'adrenal,' and 'endocrine.' RESULTS: Older age and pre-existing obesity, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes mellitus increase the risk of hospitalization and death in COVID-19 patients. Men tend to be more severely affected than women; fortunately, most men, particularly of younger age, survive the infection. In addition to general comorbidities that may apply to many pituitary patients, they are also susceptible due to the following pituitary disorder-specific features: hypercortisolemia and adrenal suppression with Cushing disease, adrenal insufficiency and diabetes insipidus with hypopituitarism, and sleep-apnea syndrome and chest wall deformity with acromegaly. CONCLUSION: This review aims to focus on the impact of COVID-19 in patients with pituitary disorders. As most countries are implementing mobility restrictions, we also discuss how this pandemic has affected patient attitudes and impacted our decision-making on management recommendations for these patients. ABBREVIATIONS: ACE = angiotensin-converting enzyme; AI = adrenal insufficiency; ARB = angiotensin receptor blocker; ARDS = acute respiratory disease syndrome; COVID-19 = coronavirus disease 2019; CPAP = continuous positive airway pressure; DI = diabetes insipidus; DM = diabetes mellitus; SARS-CoV-2 = severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

The direct and indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the care of patients with pituitary disease: a cross sectional study.

PURPOSE: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is widely believed to have had a major impact on the care of patients with pituitary disease. The virus itself may directly result in death, and patients with adrenal insufficiency, often a part of hypopituitarism, are thought to represent a particularly susceptible subgroup. Moreover, even in patients that do not contract the virus, the diversion of resources by healthcare institutions to manage the virus may indirectly result in delays in their management. To this end, the aim of this study was to determine the direct and indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients with pituitary disease. METHODS: A cross-sectional study design was adopted, with all adult patients seen by our pituitary service in the year prior to the nationwide lockdown on March 23rd 2020 invited to participate in a telephone survey. RESULTS: In all, 412 patients (412/586; 70.3%) participated in the survey. 66 patients (66/412; 16.0%) reported having suspected COVID-19 infection. Of the 10 patients in this group tested for COVID-19 infection, three received a positive test result. No deaths due to COVID-19 were identified. 267 patients (267/412; 64.8%) experienced a delay or change in the planned care for their pituitary disease, with 100 patients (100/412; 24.3%) perceiving an impact to their care. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst only a small percentage of patients had confirmed or suspected COVID-19 infection, over half were still indirectly impacted by the pandemic through a delay or change to their planned care.

Pituitary society guidance: pituitary disease management and patient care recommendations during the COVID-19 pandemic-an international perspective.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the viral strain that has caused the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, has presented healthcare systems around the world with an unprecedented challenge. In locations with significant rates of viral transmission, social distancing measures and enforced 'lockdowns' are the new 'norm' as governments try to prevent healthcare services from being overwhelmed. However, with these measures have come important challenges for the delivery of existing services for other diseases and conditions. The clinical care of patients with pituitary disorders typically involves a multidisciplinary team, working in concert to deliver timely, often complex, disease investigation and management, including pituitary surgery. COVID-19 has brought about major disruption to such services, limiting access to care and opportunities for testing (both laboratory and radiological), and dramatically reducing the ability to safely undertake transsphenoidal surgery. In the absence of clinical trials to guide management of patients with pituitary disease during the COVID-19 pandemic, herein the Professional Education Committee of the Pituitary Society proposes guidance for continued safe management and care of this population.